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Research Notes




 

Auctioning Off Yaroslavl Marketing Company - Outcome Overshoots Expectations by 100%

07/06/2006 20:08

Auctioning Off Yaroslavl Marketing Company – Outcome Overshoots Expectations by 100%

On Thursday, July 6, a public auction was held to sell 47.36% of Yaroslavl Marketing Company, owned by UES. Transneftservice S was named the winner after having placing the winning bid of $12 mln. Six contenders took part in the auction and the final bid overshot the initial price by more than 2.3-fold.

For the record, the starting price was set at no less than the threshold value found by an independent appraiser ($6.6 mln), which put the company's market cap at $13.99 mln. The estimated capitalization of Yaroslavl Marketing Company, which follows from the auction's results, came to $33.4 mln, or 7 times higher than the book value of the company's assets. The auction valued Yaroslavl energy system's marketing assets in line with the following comparative indicators.

MultipleFigureDescription
P/book 7.05 Ratio between the company’s capitalization and the book value of the marketing entity
P/S 0.11 Ratio between the company’s capitalization and the energy system’s sales before breakup in 2005
P/output 5.65 Ratio between the company’s capitalization and electricity sales in the energy system

It's noteworthy that estimates of only five companies out of 32 entities under valuation topped those of Yaroslavl Marketing Company based on auction results, which underscored our conclusions (see our Daily dated May 18, 2006). In our opinion, insufficient market focus on marketing units leaves room for interesting investment opportunities and speculative positions in a number of undervalued stocks.

The July 6 auction to sell Yaroslavl Marketing Company was the first of many in terms of privatization of Russian energy assets and could draw market players' attention to marketing assets of Russian energy systems, which have so far gone largely unnoticed by investors We assign a Buy recommendation to the stocks of the following 19 marketing units out of 33 concerns whose shares trade on the equity market.

CompanyRTS tickerCurrent price, $SpreadTarget price, $Upside potential
Novgorod Electricity Marketing Company (prefs) NGSBP 0.0096 - 0.0293 205%
Nizhny Novgorod Marketing Company (prefs) NNSBP 2.6416 540% 7.7856 195%
Vladimir Electricity Marketing Company VDSB 0.1796 - 0.5041 181%
Ryazan Energy Marketing Company RZSB 0.0294 112% 0.0731 149%
Yaroslavl Marketing Company YRSB 0.3856 80% 0.7914 105%
Energosbyt of Rostovenergo RTSB 0.0040 - 0.0078 97%
Udmurtskaya Electricity Marketing Company (prefs) UDSBP 0.0400 200% 0.0777 94%
Tula Marketing Company TLSB 0.0098 - 0.0195 99%
Tver Electricity Marketing Company TVSB 0.0216 - 0.0384 78%
Bryansk Marketing Company BNSB 0.1619 - 0.3246 100%
Arkhangelsk Marketing Company ARSB 0.0050 1,700% 0.0095 89%
Tambov Electricity Marketing Company TASB 0.0030 - 0.0052 72%
Penza Electricity Marketing Company (prefs) PZSBP 0.0348 718% 0.0626 80%
Astrakhan Electricity Marketing Company ASSB 0.0071 67% 0.0112 57%
Nizhny Novgorod Marketing Company NNSB 5.1750 240% 8.6506 67%
Lipetsk Electricity Marketing Company LPSB 0.0664 233% 0.1250 88%
Udmurtskaya Electricity Marketing Company UDSB 0.0563 71% 0.0863 53%
Kurskenergosbyt KUSB 0.0063 190% 0.0093 47%
Tver Electricity Marketing Company (prefs) TVSBP 0.0228 350% 0.0345 51%
Voronezh Energy Marketing Company VRSB 0.1402 173% 0.2127 52%
Chelyabinskenergosbyt (prefs) CLSBP 0.0056 376% 0.0075 34%
Kirovenergosbyt (prefs) KISBP 0.0046 - 0.0070 52%
Yaroslavl Marketing Company (prefs) YRSBP 0.6075 104% 0.7123 17%
Volgogradenergosbyt (prefs) VGSBP 0.0498 493% 0.0655 32%
Energosbyt of Rostovenergo (prefs) RTSBP 0.0057 400% 0.0070 24%
Belgorod Marketing Company BLSB 12.5000 300% 15.7852 26%
Arkhangelsk Marketing Company (prefs) ARSBP 0.0054 300% 0.0086 58%
Voronezh Electricity Marketing Company (prefs) VRSBP 0.1500 400% 0.1915 28%
Penza Electricity Marketing Company PZSB 0.0586 733% 0.0696 19%
Mordova Electricity Marketing Company MRSB 0.0050 - 0.0055 9%
Belgorod Marketing Company (prefs) BLSBP 13.7512 1,539% 14.2067 3%
Bryansk Marketing Company (prefs) BNSBP 0.2550 4,900% 0.2921 15%
Chelabinskenergosbyt CLSB 0.0087 471% 0.0083 -5%
Kostroma Marketing Company KTSB 0.0175 - 0.0136 -22%
Marienergosbyt (prefs) MISBP 0.1575 1,900% 0.0460 -71%
Smolenskenergosbyt (prefs) SMSBP 0.0572 567% 0.0482 -16%
Ivanovo Electricity Marketing Company (prefs) IVSBP 0.0232 1,240% 0.0220 -5%
Kostroma Marketing Company (prefs) KTSBP 0.0201 200% 0.0123 -39%
Volgogradenergosbyt VGSB 0.0946 1,233% 0.0728 -23%
Smolenskenergosbyt SMSB 0.0711 90% 0.0535 -25%
Novgorod Electricity Marketing Company NGSB 0.0443 1,456% 0.0326 -26%
Marienergosbyt MISB 0.0715 422% 0.0511 -28%
Tomsk Electricity Marketing Company TOSB 0.0045 900% 0.0031 -32%
Kirovenergosbyt KISB 0.0120 - 0.0078 -35%
Ivanovo Electricity Marketing Company IVSB 0.0363 1,150% 0.0244 -33%
Tomsk Electricity Marketing Company (prefs) TOSBP 0.0046 900% 0.0028 -40%
Kaluga Marketing Company KLSB 0.1748 884% 0.1116 -36%
Mosenergosbyt MSSB 0.0112 240% 0.0059 -48%
Kurskenergosbyt (prefs) KUSBP 0.0048 733% 0.0084 76%
Dagestan Electricity Marketing Company DASB 0.0032 700% 0.0015 -53%
Tambov Electricity Marketing Company (prefs) TASBP 0.0288 16,567% 0.0046 -84%
Orel Marketing Company ORSB 0.2221 2,841% 0.0286 -87%
Orel Marketing Company (prefs) ORSBP 0.1719 2,900% 0.0258 -85%

Simon Birg

* Short overviews of equity research reports and sector reports are posted on the website http://www.finamrus.com with a 1-day delay after their full versions are emailed to the company’s clients. To get overviews on the day of their release, please contact your manager at Finam to sign up for full versions of research reports.

Sector: Power Utilities, Energy Sales
Company: Yaroslavskaya SC

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