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Updated: Sep 7, 2008 17:51         CY  
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Daily analyst comments




 

Mechel's expectations at odds with those of the market

07/22/2008 10:33

Mechel may sell its preferred shares at a price lower than the earlier voiced price range of USD 50-60. The company's intention backs our conclusion that the previously voiced prices are conspicuously overvalued in comparison with our estimate of the company's fair price.

According to the Interfax agency, the Mechel steel company may give up an IPO of its preferred shares or bring down its price range for the placement of the shares. The lack of clarity as to how the company intends to use its proceeds from the IPO is among the negative factors making potential investments in the company less appealing. According to unconfirmed information, the average price investors are prepared to pay for the shares does not exceed USD 34-35 per share.

We believe that the information released confirms the correctness of our estimate of the company's fair value. Our estimate puts the fair price in the neighborhood of USD 30 per preferred share, depending on the required rate of return. With required annual returns at 12%, the fair price of the company's preferred shares should stand at USD 29.7 per share as of late July, 2008. Interfax said the bid book for the shares would be closed on July 22 and the placement price was to be finalized on July 23.

Sulinov Aleksey

Other comments of the day

Mechel

Capitalization: $8 325 414 900,00

Common shares:
Price: $20,00
Delta week: -24,7%
Delta month: -11,1%
Delta year: 37,9%


 



Finam Mutual funds  

First   Bonds
MICEX Index   Low Liquidity Shares
Finam Mutual Funds

   Top Gainers
 Smolensk Energo 1.16936.73 %
 Ivanovo EnergoS 0.25936.32 %
 ZMZ 12525.00 %
 VHZ 1705.87 %
 ARMADA 4905.58 %
   Top Losers
 MRSK Severnogo  115.98-47.52 %
 Kirov Energo Sb 0.083-24.55 %
 MRSK Volgi -004 0.1101-24.07 %
 OmskEnergoSbyt 50-20.62 %
 Sverdlov Energo 0.8-19.92 %

Russian Stock Indices
 RTS 1,469.15-3.76%18:00
 MICEX10INDEX 2,054.8-4.395%17:44
 MICEXINDEXCF 1,234.71-3.678%17:44
Finam Indices
 i.LKOH 67.4184-1.821%17:44
 i.RTKM 11.1036-0.993%17:44
 i.SNGS 0.6387-7.174%17:44
 i.SBER 2.1573-4.548%17:44
 i.GMKN 151.7021-10.452%17:44
 i.TATN 4.5191-4.586%17:44
 i.MSNG 0.0857-7.638%17:44
 i.GAZP 8.7607-5.045%17:44
 i.ROSN 7.8915-0.855%17:44
 i.PLZL 28.7582-7.7%17:44
 i.AVAZ 0.6881-8.721%17:44
 i.VTBR 0.0024-8.171%17:44
ADR (London)
 Gazprom 8.485-4.394%18:40
 Lukoil 660%18:40
 Rostelekom 10.88333-1.061%18:40
 Tatneft 4.465-0.667%18:40
 Norilsk nikel 144.6-9.907%17:48
 Surgutneftegaz 0.642-3.313%18:40
 AFKS 1,090-12.45%18:40
 Rosneft 7.770.909%18:40
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