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Daily analyst comments




 

OGK-1 sold at USD 516 per kW

07/01/2008 10:44

The event of the day

The sale of OGK-1 to Roskommunenergo should have a positive impact on the genco's fundamental value; however, the market's speculation-driven expectations of the offer may not be met.

Roskommunenergo has acquired a share package in OGK-1 at USD 516 per 1 kW of established capacity, UES board chairman, Anatoly Chubais reported. Dubai World is to act as a partner in the deal. The offer from Roskommunenergo has already been received and the purchase and sale contract has already been signed. However, the transaction is to be finalized after July 1 with RusHydro and FGC, who will receive OGK-1's shares under a separation balance sheet.

Therefore, OGK-1 was valued at RUB 2.5, or USD 0.1066 per share. This is the buyout price the purchaser must offer to minority holders after exceeding the legally established thresholds in the charter capital. However, UES has established a payment by installments plan for the state share package valid until October 1, 2009. The share of the additional issue in the upsized charter capital amounts to 33.5%. The minority holders are not likely to buy out the additional issue shares under their preemptive right, so the offer will most likely be made. However, there is a risk of the deal being restructured so that the additional issue will be distributed among several companies and the offer made only in 18 months time. This news is positive for OGK-1 and FGC, since the deficiency of the companies' investment programs will be reduced.

The fair value of OGK-1 shares is USD 0.11 per share, which corresponds to a Buy recommendation.

Konstantin Reily

Other comments of the day

OGK-1

Capitalization: $446 431 929,19

Common shares:
Price: $0,0070
Delta week: 26,4%
Delta month: -33,8%
Delta year: -94,0%


 



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