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In our opinion, after amassing 97% of open joint-stock company Bank VTB North-West, VTB Bank may shortly make a forced buyout offer to the remaining shareholders at a price at least equal to the voluntary buyout price.
Between April 14 and June 23, during the validity period of its buyout offer to VTB North-West shareholders, VTB bank bought out 1,299,865,117 shares in the bank, at 10.3% of its charter capital, the VTB press service announced on June 24. The shares were bought at a price of RUB 45 (about USD 1.9) per share. As a result, VTB has amassed around 97% of Bank VTB North-West shares. VTB expects to pay off the shareholders by July 8, 2008, inclusive.
The process of consolidation of VTB North-West shares on VTB books is approaching the final stage. VTB is set to consolidate 100% of VTB North-West shares. We expect VTB to make a forced buyout offer to VTB North-West shareholders, under which the remaining shareholders will be obliged to sell their shares. By Russian law, the forced buyout price cannot be lower than the voluntary buyout price, which, therefore, should be at least RUB 45 (around USD 1.9) per share.
In view of this, VTB North-West shareholders are advised to wait for the forced buyout offer to be made, given that the bank's shares are now traded at a 6% discount to the minimum possible price under the future buyout offer. In addition, we recommend that investors buy into VTB. We estimate the fair value of one common share in VTB at USD 0.0053, which implies an upside potential of 47.7% to the current stock valuations.
Konstantin Romanov
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VTB
Capitalization: $8 741 380 061,72
Common shares:
Price: $0,0013
Delta week: -33,5%
Delta month: -43,6%
Delta year: -71,8%
VTB North-West
Capitalization: $2 231 929 282,92
Common shares:
Price: $1,77
Delta week: 0,00%
Delta month: 1,9%
Delta year: 6,0%
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