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The Federal Tariff Service’s planned tariff hikes were slightly below our estimates. They are to be taken into account while estimating the fundamental value of phone company shares. The result is likely to be a marginal decrease in our outlook for inter-regional telecoms companies (IRC)’ revenues.
The press reported on March 31 that the Federal Tariff Service (FTS) announced plans to lift the ceiling on federal tariffs for local telecoms services in upcoming years. The tariffs are to increase by 7-7.5% in 2009 and by 6% yearly in 2010 and 2011.
Our projection of the pace of growth in tariffs on regulated telecoms services is based on the consumer price index. The logic behind this approach is evident. In the event of a rise in the economically substantiated costs that IRCs and Rostelecom submit to FTS, their tariffs should grow accordingly, and the tariffs grow in line with inflation at best.
In our existing models for Sibirtelecom, URSI and Dalsvyaz, we expect the tariffs to grow by 8-10% annually for the next three years, which is marginally higher than the growth rates predicted by FTS. The regulator’s position is to be taken into account in future upgrades on our estimates, which will likely lead to a decrease in our predictive estimates of revenues on fixed-line telecoms services. The downgrade is not to be serious, as IRCs earn money not only on regulated services, on certain occasions, only a small fraction of revenue is derived from such services.
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SiberiaTelecom
Capitalization: $51 095 601,96
Common shares:
Price: $0,012
Delta week: -12,5%
Delta month: -32,5%
Delta year: -90,1%
Preferred shares:
Price: $0,0089
Delta week: -8,0%
Delta month: -33,0%
Delta year: -89,0%
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0.553
1.6
