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Daily analyst comments




 

Vimpelcom buys Golden Telecom: expect the margins to drop for the new operator

12/21/2007 13:04

We believe that the news that Vimpelcom is most likely to buy Golden Telecom is moderately negative for MTS. In our opinion, MTS has all the chances to become an operator No. 2 in terms of consolidated revenue in 2008. However, in all the likelihood, Vimpelcom's OIBDA margin is to be lower than that of MTS due to the lower profitability of fixed lines.

On December 21 Interfax reported that the BoD of Vimpelcom and Golden Telecom have approved the merger of their companies. Vimpelcom is to buy Golden Telecom's shares at USD 105 per share, which is USD 4.24 bn for the entire company, while the current price of the Nasdaq-traded operator's stock is USD 100 per share.

The rumors that Vimpelcom might acquire its "relative", the Alfa Group owns large stakes in both companies, were mentioned several times in our past dailies on - July 9, 2007 and February 27, 2007. We are now able to see the picture more clearly, as the transaction is to be completed soon.

We believe that the merger with Golden Telecom is likely to make Vimpelcom the company with the highest consolidated revenue, while MTS should lose its position as Russia's No-1 Operator. Nevertheless, we do not expect any serious negative effects on MTS, which specializes in mobile communications. It is worthy to note that diversified holdings do not always produce a synergy effect for their shareholders. In Vimpelcom's case, it is not quite clear yet whether the merger is to have a harmoniously symbiotic effect, or whether seperate operations would be more profitable for shareholders. The other negative factor which is to affect Vimpelcom is to be the reduction of consolidated margins. Golden Telecom's OIBDA margin in 9M 2007 stood at 25% compared to 52% of Vimpelcom.

Table. Vimpelcom, MTS and Golden Telecom: Key financials

 VimpelcomGolden TelecomConsolidated (Vimpelcom + GT)MTS
9M 2007 Revenue 5,161,152 903,799 6,064,951 5,926,015
OIBDA, 9M 2007 2,678,333 222,968 2,901,301 3,096,531
OIBDA margin, 9M 2007 52% 25% 48% 52%
Source: Companies data, FINAM estimates

We do not see any serious threat to MTS, and keep our fair value for company's common stock at USD 18.22 per share. We reiterate our BUY recommendation.

Other comments of the day

VimpelCom

Capitalization: $7 312 673 737,20

Common shares:
Price: $7,13
Delta week: 0,00%
Delta month: -19,0%
Delta year: -82,7%



MTS

Capitalization: $7 574 639 324,40

Common shares:
Price: $3,80
Target price: $12,39
Recommendation: Buy
Delta week: 0,00%
Delta month: -10,9%
Delta year: -75,1%


 



Finam Mutual funds  

First   Bonds
MICEX Index   Low Liquidity Shares
Finam Mutual Funds

   Top Gainers
 Orelenergosbyt  0.24470.63 %
 O2TV 18.532.24 %
 Lipetsk EnergoS 1.31730.65 %
 YakutskEnergo a 0.1828.57 %
 DalVostochny Ba 17927.86 %
   Top Losers
 Volgograd Energ 0.616-29.84 %
 SistemaGals 249-22.91 %
 LenEnrg (pref) 8.51-22.64 %
 CMT 6.258-21.79 %
 Orelenergosbyt  0.57-17.87 %

Russian Stock Indices
 RTS 631.891.03%14:00
 MICEX10INDEX 1,235.76-0.092%12:44
 MICEXINDEXCF 619.530.275%12:44
Finam Indices
 i.LKOH 32.84451.22%12:49
 i.RTKM 9.0196-1.984%12:44
 i.SNGS 0.5633-0.512%12:49
 i.SBER 0.7818-0.581%12:49
 i.GMKN 68.0726-0.76%12:49
 i.TATN 1.8805-1.844%12:49
 i.MSNG 0.03230.498%12:49
 i.GAZP 3.6758-1.051%12:49
 i.ROSN 3.7744-1.776%12:49
 i.PLZL 25.8384-1.274%12:49
 i.AVAZ 0.2422-2.359%12:44
 i.VTBR 0.0011-1.724%12:49
ADR (London)
 Gazprom 4.079463-1.104%12:28
 Lukoil 36.3-1.626%12:28
 Rostelekom 9.2-6.441%12:02
 Tatneft 1.960.513%12:24
 Norilsk nikel 68.8-1.291%12:28
 Surgutneftegaz 0.51201-0.387%12:26
 AFKS 275-4.348%12:11
 Rosneft 4.290.234%12:28
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