|
We believe that the news that Vimpelcom is most likely to buy Golden Telecom is moderately negative for MTS. In our opinion, MTS has all the chances to become an operator No. 2 in terms of consolidated revenue in 2008. However, in all the likelihood, Vimpelcom's OIBDA margin is to be lower than that of MTS due to the lower profitability of fixed lines.
On December 21 Interfax reported that the BoD of Vimpelcom and Golden Telecom have approved the merger of their companies. Vimpelcom is to buy Golden Telecom's shares at USD 105 per share, which is USD 4.24 bn for the entire company, while the current price of the Nasdaq-traded operator's stock is USD 100 per share.
The rumors that Vimpelcom might acquire its "relative", the Alfa Group owns large stakes in both companies, were mentioned several times in our past dailies on - July 9, 2007 and February 27, 2007. We are now able to see the picture more clearly, as the transaction is to be completed soon.
We believe that the merger with Golden Telecom is likely to make Vimpelcom the company with the highest consolidated revenue, while MTS should lose its position as Russia's No-1 Operator. Nevertheless, we do not expect any serious negative effects on MTS, which specializes in mobile communications. It is worthy to note that diversified holdings do not always produce a synergy effect for their shareholders. In Vimpelcom's case, it is not quite clear yet whether the merger is to have a harmoniously symbiotic effect, or whether seperate operations would be more profitable for shareholders. The other negative factor which is to affect Vimpelcom is to be the reduction of consolidated margins. Golden Telecom's OIBDA margin in 9M 2007 stood at 25% compared to 52% of Vimpelcom.
Table. Vimpelcom, MTS and Golden Telecom: Key financials
| | Vimpelcom | Golden Telecom | Consolidated (Vimpelcom + GT) | MTS |
| 9M 2007 Revenue |
5,161,152 |
903,799 |
6,064,951 |
5,926,015 |
| OIBDA, 9M 2007 |
2,678,333 |
222,968 |
2,901,301 |
3,096,531 |
| OIBDA margin, 9M 2007 |
52% |
25% |
48% |
52% |
Source: Companies data, FINAM estimates
We do not see any serious threat to MTS, and keep our fair value for company's common stock at USD 18.22 per share. We reiterate our BUY recommendation.
Other comments of the day
|
VimpelCom
Capitalization: $7 312 673 737,20
Common shares:
Price: $7,13
Delta week: 0,00%
Delta month: -19,0%
Delta year: -82,7%
MTS
Capitalization: $7 574 639 324,40
Common shares:
Price: $3,80
Target price: $12,39
Recommendation: Buy
Delta week: 0,00%
Delta month: -10,9%
Delta year: -75,1%
|