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Daily analyst comments




 

Railway transport – another national idea worth Rub 13.7 tln ($533.69 bln)

08/29/2007 07:48

Sector: Engineering

A joint meeting of the Industry and Energy Ministry and the Transport Ministry noted that no major differences exist concerning the two main strategies to roll out railway transport: "Development Strategy for the Transport Engineering of the Russian Federation in 2007-2010 and up to 2015" and "Rollout Strategy for Railway Transport up to 2030". In our opinion, their implementation, which is to be launched in the near future, will positively impact the operations of many companies in the transport engineering sector, since demand for their products will be very strong.

The Industry and Energy Ministry and the Transport Ministry held a joint meeting on August 27, which pointed out that no major differences exist concerning the two main strategies to roll out railway transport: "Development Strategy for the Transport Engineering of the Russian Federation in 2007-2010 and up to 2015" and "Rollout Strategy for Railway Transport up to 2030". A decision was adopted at the meeting to draft a joint resolution of the Industry and Energy Ministry and the Transport Ministry to fulfill a set of measures to implement these strategies.

According to forecasts by the Industry and Energy Ministry, two scenarios are provided for railway transport development up to 2030: maximum and minimum. The strategy provides for ensuring the need of a growing economy, gradual improvement of quality of services rendered to comply with international standards. Cargo traffic is to rise 1.7-fold and the time of cargo delivery is to decrease by 26% and container delivery 3.7-fold. Russia's unique geographical location will serve as a transcontinental transport bridge. Railway transport is to be organically integrated into the global transport system and export of transport services is to climb 2.6-fold. The target for heavy traffic of freight trains, which makes it possible to cut costs, is 13,800 km.

An important segment is the block related to development of passenger transport, primarily speed and hi speed transportation. High speed operations are to be launched at 10,800 km of railways compared to 650 km at present. In addition, speeds reaching 300-350 km per hour are to be arranged over a distance of 1,500 km.

All methods of financing are to be used. Around Rub 13.7 tln ($533.69 bln), including Rub 2.7 tln ($105.18 bln) from the federal budget, Rub 642 bln ($25.01 bln) from regional budgets, over Rub 10 tln ($389.55 bln) of private investments and more than 50% - financial resources of Russian Railroads Co. Implementation of the strategy is to ensure 4.5-fold growth of the national economy.

In our opinion, implementation of this strategy will positively impact operations of transport engineering companies. In particular, Altayvagon (RTS: alvg), a key manufacturer of freight railcars and Tver Railway Car Works (RTS: tvag) a key manufacturer of passenger cars in Russia stand to gain the most from stronger demand for their products.

Denis Gorev

Other comments of the day

Altayvagon

Capitalization: $73 380 160,00

Common shares:
Price: $658,00
Delta week: 0,00%
Delta month: -18,3%
Delta year: -64,9%



Tver Wagon Plant

Capitalization: $93 601 875,00

Common shares:
Price: $375,00
Delta week: 0,00%
Delta month: -7,4%
Delta year: -79,5%


 



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