Sector: O&G
The event of the day
Two more auctions to sell off Yukos assets were held on May 3. Based on the results of the first auction, Yukos assets located in South Russia (lot #9) went to Promregionholding (according to media reports, affiliated with Lukoil's management) for Rub 4.9 bln. Utilities assets accounted for the bulk of this lot (see Utilities Daily for details). Yukos assets in East Siberia (lot #10) were sold off at the second auction. The initial price was Rub 166.34 bln ($6.46 bln), the assets were acquired by Rosneft's subsidiary Neft-Aktiv at Rub 175.7 bln ($6.83 bln).
Lot #10 included common and preferred shares and stakes in 37 companies owned by Yukos with various spheres of operations. The biggest assets are 100% in Tomskneft, 70.78% in East Siberian Oil and Gas Company, 100% in Angarskaya Petrochemical Company (RTS: ANHK), 100% in the Achinsk refinery, 100% in Angarsky Polymer Plant, 100% in the Strezhevoy refinery, 25.88% in group of utilities in the Tomsk region, including Tomsk Distribution Company, Tomsk Energy Sales Company and Tomsk Trunk Grids.
Valuation of key assets in lot #10 is givenbelow:
| | Oil and gas reserves, mln BOE | Crude output in 2006, mln bbl | EV/output (industry average), $/BOE | EV/reserves (industry average), $/bbl | Our valuation, based on crude output, $ bln | Our valuation based on reserves, $ bln | Our average estimate of the company’s value, $ bln |
| Tomskneft |
1,082* |
85.03 |
87.0 |
4.4 |
7.39 |
4.75 |
6.07 |
*Kommersant business daily reported quoting Miller & Lents' data that Tomskneft's total proven reserves amount to 998.9 mln bbl, probable 695.9 mln and possible 621.9 mln bbl. Proven reserves of gas are estimated at 465 bln cu feet
| | Annual capacity, mln tons | Refining capacity in 2006, mln tons | EV/ capacity (industry average), $/ton | EV / refining capacity, (industry average), $/ton | Our valuation base don capacity, $ bln | Our valuation based on refining volume, $ bln | Our average estimate of the company’s value, $ bln |
| Angarskaya Petrochemical Company |
19.2 |
9 |
75 |
107 |
1.44 |
0.96 |
1.20 |
| Achinsk refinery |
6.5 |
5 |
75 |
107 |
0.49 |
0.53 |
0.51 |
| Out total valuation of key assets |
|
|
|
|
|
|
7.78 |
Based on Q106 data, interim receiver Eduard Regbun estimated Tomskneft at $3.3 bln, the Achinsk refinery at $713 mln and Angarskaya Petrochemical Company at $1.42 bln.
Thus, we believe that Rosneft has profitably acquired Yukos refining assets and its large production unit. Taking into account Gazprom's interest in Tomskneft, we do not rule out that in the future the gas giant will purchase it from Rosneft.
Another appealing lot of Yukos assets (Samara-based enterprises) will be auctioned off on May 10 (see our Daily dated April 09, 2007). We view Rosneft as the main contender which will which most likely acquire these assets.
In July, Rosneft plans to release new operating targets as a result of acquisition of new assets.
Olga Belenkaya
Other comments of the day
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Rosneft
Capitalization: $39 743 166 813,75
Common shares:
Price: $3,75
Delta week: 0,00%
Delta month: -4,6%
Delta year: -59,5%
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