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Daily analyst comments




 

Rosneft acquires Yukos assets in East Siberia

05/04/2007 08:01

Sector: O&G

The event of the day

Two more auctions to sell off Yukos assets were held on May 3. Based on the results of the first auction, Yukos assets located in South Russia (lot #9) went to Promregionholding (according to media reports, affiliated with Lukoil's management) for Rub 4.9 bln. Utilities assets accounted for the bulk of this lot (see Utilities Daily for details). Yukos assets in East Siberia (lot #10) were sold off at the second auction. The initial price was Rub 166.34 bln ($6.46 bln), the assets were acquired by Rosneft's subsidiary Neft-Aktiv at Rub 175.7 bln ($6.83 bln).

Lot #10 included common and preferred shares and stakes in 37 companies owned by Yukos with various spheres of operations. The biggest assets are 100% in Tomskneft, 70.78% in East Siberian Oil and Gas Company, 100% in Angarskaya Petrochemical Company (RTS: ANHK), 100% in the Achinsk refinery, 100% in Angarsky Polymer Plant, 100% in the Strezhevoy refinery, 25.88% in group of utilities in the Tomsk region, including Tomsk Distribution Company, Tomsk Energy Sales Company and Tomsk Trunk Grids.

Valuation of key assets in lot #10 is givenbelow:

 Oil and gas reserves, mln BOECrude output in 2006, mln bblEV/output (industry average), $/BOEEV/reserves (industry average), $/bblOur valuation, based on crude output, $ blnOur valuation based on reserves, $ blnOur average estimate of the company’s value, $ bln
Tomskneft 1,082* 85.03 87.0 4.4 7.39 4.75 6.07
*Kommersant business daily reported quoting Miller & Lents' data that Tomskneft's total proven reserves amount to 998.9 mln bbl, probable 695.9 mln and possible 621.9 mln bbl. Proven reserves of gas are estimated at 465 bln cu feet

 Annual capacity, mln tonsRefining capacity in 2006, mln tonsEV/ capacity (industry average), $/tonEV / refining capacity, (industry average), $/tonOur valuation base don capacity, $ blnOur valuation based on refining volume, $ blnOur average estimate of the company’s value, $ bln
Angarskaya Petrochemical Company 19.2 9 75 107 1.44 0.96 1.20
Achinsk refinery 6.5 5 75 107 0.49 0.53 0.51
Out total valuation of key assets             7.78

Based on Q106 data, interim receiver Eduard Regbun estimated Tomskneft at $3.3 bln, the Achinsk refinery at $713 mln and Angarskaya Petrochemical Company at $1.42 bln.

Thus, we believe that Rosneft has profitably acquired Yukos refining assets and its large production unit. Taking into account Gazprom's interest in Tomskneft, we do not rule out that in the future the gas giant will purchase it from Rosneft.

Another appealing lot of Yukos assets (Samara-based enterprises) will be auctioned off on May 10 (see our Daily dated April 09, 2007). We view Rosneft as the main contender which will which most likely acquire these assets.

In July, Rosneft plans to release new operating targets as a result of acquisition of new assets.

Olga Belenkaya

Other comments of the day

Rosneft

Capitalization: $39 743 166 813,75

Common shares:
Price: $3,75
Delta week: 0,00%
Delta month: -4,6%
Delta year: -59,5%


 



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